Confessions of an Energy Trader

This energy blog is written by the FlexPower collective. We are traders and engineers sharing our perspectives on the energy market. While we may show you some neat analysis and correct grammar here and there, we will treat this mainly as a quick&dirty view of the facts as we see them. We have no claim to final truths but want to throw you some interesting facts and opinions to start a discussion. Feel free to engage and be controversial. However, please: keep calm and civil. It's only words.

New articles

New articles

About the confessor

The value proposition of battery storage extends far beyond mere wholesale energy arbitrage. To truly unlock the full economic potential of these assets and maximize their contribution to grid stability, it is crucial to consider their participation in ancillary services markets. We show this multi-market optimization here by way of example focusing on all spot markets (Day-Ahead, Intraday and Intraday Continuous) as well as the ancillary services.

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Battery energy storage systems are becoming a cornerstone of Germany’s energy transition. We explore the financial opportunities and risks in Germany’s wholesale and balancing markets.

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Data centers account for around four percent of total electricity consumption in Europe and North America. As demand grows, the question of how flexibly they can use power is becoming increasingly urgent.

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With Germany on the brink of a pivotal election, we want to share our high-level views on energy policy and the key considerations for voters. We’ve outlined five fundamental theses to keep this concise and to the point.

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Electricity (cross-product) price volatility has historically been closely linked to overall price levels. This trend seems to have ended in 2024 in Germany, as low marginal cost renewables are pushing the overall wholesale price level down, while peakers such as gas and batteries need to finance their investments in relatively few but increasingly expensive production hours

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Germany has reached a record level in the installation of solar systems with 15 GW in 2023. However, problems are now beginning to emerge with rooftop solar.

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This blog post is the third in a series of articles about hedging price volatility using standard shapes such as wind and PV, as well as more novel and somewhat non-standard ones, such as the FlexHL (Battery). While the first two articles were explainers for consumers, this one is for suppliers who are looking to sell their flexibility, i.e. BESS owners.

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A Tale of Merchants, by Amani Joas

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In this subsequent blog, we extend our discussion from part I and look at how to use Flex HL (battery) shapes to hedge against price volatility.

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In recent years, if you’re involved in the power sector, you’ve likely come across discussions about Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). Some consider them a cure-all for advancing the energy transition, and we, too, recognize their crucial role. However, it’s essential to grasp that a PPA is essentially a contract for buying or selling power, without specifying the type.

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Over the last year we became increasingly involved with the “science” of modelling past and future revenues of battery energy storage systems (BESS) and now decided to shed some light on this practice. We believe that customers are being sold a lot of voodoo for science and that the incentives in this industry are not at all well aligned.

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In recent years, if you’re involved in the power sector, you’ve likely come across discussions about Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). Some consider them a cure-all for advancing the energy transition, and we, too, recognize their crucial role. However, it’s essential to grasp that a PPA is essentially a contract for buying or selling power, without specifying the type.

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The question of proactive balancing group management to support the electricity system has been a hotly debated topic in German electricity trading for years. Should balancing responsible parties – as in many other European countries – also be allowed to support the system in Germany through deliberate imbalances in their portfolios or not? FlexPower discusses the results of a new study on this topic with the author, Prof. Dr. Lion Hirth from NEON Neue Energieökonomik.

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We are often asked how the financial optimization (or: arbitrage) of a battery across the different market places of the spot market works. We show this x-market optimization here by way of example focusing on the day-ahead spot market (hourly auction at 12 noon), intraday quarter-hourly auction (at 3 p.m.) and the so-called intraday continuous market (quarter-hourly products up to five minutes before delivery).

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Shutting off green and cheap renewable energy is a counterintuitive practice that has been widely discussed and usually criticized in the past. We will use this blog to shed light on the business logic of economic renewable curtailment in order to structure the logic behind a debate that has been the cause of torn out hairs in many companies including our own.

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With ChatGPT making waves the discussion around machines taking over short-term power trading has once again gained momentum. This article presents our view on the future of machine driven power trading and decision making.

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Shutting off green and cheap renewable energy is a counterintuitive practice that has been widely discussed and usually criticized in the past. We will use this blog to shed light on the business logic of economic renewable curtailment in order to structure the logic behind a debate that has been the cause of torn out hairs in many companies including our own.

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The German government plans to introduce a price cap (essentially a tax) for energy producers. This will likely lead to the curtailment of valuable green energy production at times of positive prices (worst case). Best case it will introduce a minimum price floor in markets exactly at the level of the marginal tax rate.

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Direct Marketing Contracts in Germany are traditionally settled against so-called Reference Market Values. We believe that this is an outdated approach which increases uncertainty and thereby lowers the income of Renewable producers.

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The pending price caps for renewable assets is a reasonable idea, however, it creates extreme uncertainty and paralyzes the market. If executed badly, it could bankrupt hedged renewable asset owners.

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The decarbonization of energy is the largest industrial endeavor of our time. Energy supplies are changing from large, centralized and dispatchable plants to small, decentralized and weather-dependent renewables: mostly wind and solar.

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About the author

Master of Camouflage

Flex trading is the new energy trading! That’s our motto — because the cheaper renewable power becomes, the more important (and profitable) it gets to fill the gaps left by solar and wind.
That’s why we focus on meeting the ever shifting needs of customers and markets. For us, flexibility isn’t just a technical term – it’s at the heart of what we do and key to long-term success.
In a nutshell, flexibility on energy markets is what this energy blog is all about.